Click
the picture at the right to read the five page lead
article,
based on the The Great Bust Ahead, featured in the
prestigious PROFESSIONAL
INVESTOR journal.
Click the picture
at the right to listen to the Goldradio.fm
New Year 2008 interview with Dan on the
continuing boom,
and the coming massive depression including its effect
on Social Security and Medicare. (OR to download and Save, right-click
then click "Save Target As...".)
Available ONLY from amazon.com - not available in
bookstores.
The Great Bust Ahead is based on a simple
commonsense recognition that the long-term trend of the economy
must always be determined by consumer spending. Why? Simply because we know consumer spending accounts for about
60% to 70% of the economy as expressed by the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and more like 90% when indirect spending of our income as taxes by the government(s) is
included. When coupled with demographic analyses focused on who does the “big spending” within the population, the economic past, stretching back for about a century, is almost effortlessly accounted for with stunning accuracy. Also
revealed in stark Technicolor for anyone who wants to see, is the
unavoidable coming economic abyss that we are now headed for, and most of the world along with us. It’s nobody’s fault. It’s simply the inevitable result of our demographics. It cannot be fixed or wished away. The federal and state governments cannot solve it. It’s just as unstoppable as a tidal wave. We just have to accept the reality that it is coming, and plan for it as best we can.
Picture this:
Our great American economy is an ocean whose total depth is made up primarily of the combined spending of all the various age groups. The heaving waves on the surface of this deep ocean are
always the big-spending 45 to 54 year old group. These waves produce the peaks and troughs of the economy - the long-term booms and busts. They can and have both raised and sunk ships. We will soon have to man the lifeboats as the greatest demographic wave in American history crashes down with a thunderous roar! Like the great Titanic, there will not be enough time nor enough lifeboats on
board, and only very limited rescue available.
Book Description
The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be much worse than the 1930s, beginning perhaps as early as 2009-2010, and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030 in detail. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior
knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. Baby boomers are especially warned. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.
JANUARY 2012 UPDATE
The primary message remains the same – you should be out of stocks by now if you want to safely avoid the huge losses that will be caused by the massive decline in the 45-54 year olds demographic that starts by 2013.
You should take crucial note that this demographic decline is cast in concrete – it
CANNOT be changed. The only question is whether the massive decline in the bellwether 45-54 demographic will be matched with an equally massive economic decline. Nearly a century of history shown in the USA chart above says it surely will.
Regrettably, ongoing manipulation of short term interest rates by the Fed has (indirectly) stopped medium/long term rates from rising to the 5%-6% or so which is where they should be at this time. In January 2012 the Fed publicly stated that its policy is to now keep rates at rock bottom until at least the end of 2014. So, even though longer term we may see rates surge upwards in the inevitable coming day of reckoning, it is goodbye in the short term to a 5%-6% parking place for money in treasuries. You will have to make do with around 2%-3% (if you
are not already in since 2010 at a higher rate). However, this doesn’t mean you cannot get a good return on bonds which will happen if long rates drop down to 2% say. This will happen when the depression bites and also if the European crisis worsens driving money to the US. If the objective is safety of principal then my long standing position of now being out of stocks and in treasuries remains.
Remaining in stocks at this point is for the stout of heart who can stomach the likelihood of huge and swift losses even though we may see stocks climb higher first. Similarly, being in gold is only for those that feel they really understand this commodity.
JANUARY 2011 UPDATE
The primary message remains the same as given in 2002 and as reiterated
earlier updates –
be out of stock based investments by 2010 because from then on it is a highly dangerous place to be despite the possibility of large returns in the remaining period leading up to the coming demographics based huge crash
(purple line)
The secondary message remains the same as given in 2002 –
wait for long term treasuries to reach 6%, then invest in medium and/or long term bonds to suit your age and needs. In 2002 the book predicted that we would see 6% around now on the 30 year bond. I think we may see 6% in 2011 with the 10 year bond around 4.5%.
Remember, treasuries are a win-win: your principle will be 100% safe all the way to bond maturity while earning a solid return and, if interest rates go down as they should when the depression begins, you can sell at a nice profit should you so choose.
Never forget that the short term is highly complex and totally unpredictable. This is why Nobel Prize winners and top experts constantly disagree every day. The demographically controlled long term is much less complex and is very predictable as the chart historically shows.
The chart predicts that we are on the brink of the greatest market decline in
history.
Now is the time to be safe not greedy. As the saying goes: "Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered".
About the Author
Dan Arnold was a manager and then consultant with General Electric for fifteen years. He started and ran a successful manufacturing company in Santa
Clara County California for ten years.
After being bought out by a larger company Dan focused on investment and understanding the economy's long term trends. This work lead directly to his shocking book
The Great Bust Ahead.
Excerpted from The Great Bust Ahead - The Greatest Depression
in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away
INTRODUCTION
The entire purpose of this book is to warn and help prepare the average person, family, business and institution for the greatest economic event of our lives that is now steadily closing in on us. It is a once in a lifetime event, so there is little national memory that such an event is possible. It is the economic one hundred year flood. We are now just several years away from the greatest depression in American history. It will be several times greater than the 1930s. No maybe or perhaps. It is as unavoidable as it is certain.
The catastrophic events forecast with such clarity and certainty in the pages that follow are derived almost entirely from data that is in publicly available government files ranging from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the CIA and the INS. Anyone with the very extensive time required, the inclination and good computer database skills can establish for themselves the veracity of everything presented in this book. The ideas and data presented are simple to understand. No degree in economics is needed here. The underlying concepts that lead methodically and relentlessly to the shocking results are so compelling that they are, to all intents and purposes, unchallengeable. If this seems an
outrageous claim, you won’t think so by the end of this brief and to the point book.
You will be shown that the fundamental trend of the economy has almost nothing whatever to do with what you hear about all the time, such as interest rates, inflation, budget deficits, the dollar or who is in the White House or who controls Congress. Perhaps you have noticed the latter. A much, much more powerful, unstoppable force is the real trendsetter, and it is really so simple to understand. Every major economic event since 1920 will be easily and convincingly accounted for. It will seem so obvious once you’ve understood it, that what is forecast for the coming years will appear to be all but cast in stone . . . and in fact it is.
Available ONLY from amazon.com - not available
in bookstores.
Ideas, opinions and projections found on this website and in The Great Bust Ahead
are strictly those of author Dan Arnold. To allow for the circumstances of
individuals, which can vary greatly, they should not be acted upon without
consulting an advisor qualified to advise in financial matters.
