Click the picture at the right
to read the 2012
Yahoo article based on The Great Bust Ahead.
The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be much worse than the 1930s, beginning perhaps as early as 2009-2010, and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030 in detail. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior
knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. Baby boomers are especially warned. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.
JANUARY 2013 UPDATE
THE YEAR WHEN THE HUGE ECONOMIC DECLINE BEGINS IS NOW HERE, AS PREDICTED IN THE 2002 BOOK "THE GREAT BUST AHEAD"!
You should be out of stocks 100% if you want to avoid the huge equity losses that will be caused by the massive 13 YEAR decline in the 45-54 year olds demographic that starts this year, as shown in the chart. You should take crucial note that this demographic decline is cast in concrete – it
CANNOT be changed. The only question is whether the massive decline in this bellwether 45-54 demographic will be matched with an equally massive economic decline. Nearly a century of history shown in the USA chart says it surely will. The ongoing consequences of the unrelated sub-prime and debt crises can be added to this as a
"bonus". Just like Japan from 1990-2003 (see chart), there is nothing the government can do that will make a bit of difference.
Regrettably, ongoing manipulation of interest rates by the Fed has stopped medium/long term rates from rising to the 5%-6% or so which is where they should be at this time. In January 2012 the Fed publicly stated that its policy is to now keep rates at rock bottom until at least the end of 2014. So, even though in the longer term we may see rates surge upwards in the inevitable coming day of reckoning, it is goodbye in the short term to a 5%-6% parking place for money in treasuries. You will have to make do with around 2%-3% (if you not already in since 2010 at a higher rate). However, this doesn’t mean you cannot get a good return on bonds which will happen if long rates drop down to 2% say. This will happen when the depression bites and also if the European crisis worsens driving money to US treasuries. My long-standing position of now being out of stocks and in treasuries remains. FDIC and NCUA insured CDs are a good safety alternative.
Remaining in stocks at this point is for the stout of heart who can stomach the likelihood of huge and swift losses, even though we might see stocks climb higher first. Similarly, being in gold is only for those that feel they really understand this commodity.
About the Author
Dan Arnold was a manager and then consultant with General Electric for fifteen years. He started and ran a successful manufacturing company in Santa
Clara County California for ten years.
After being bought out by a larger company Dan focused on investment and understanding the economy's long term trends. This work lead directly to his shocking book
The Great Bust Ahead.
Excerpted from The Great Bust Ahead - The Greatest Depression
in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away
The entire purpose of this book is to warn and help prepare the average person, family, business and institution for the greatest economic event of our lives that is now steadily closing in on us. It is a once in a lifetime event, so there is little national memory that such an event is possible. It is the economic one hundred year flood. We are now just several years away from the greatest depression in American history. It will be several times greater than the 1930s. No maybe or perhaps. It is as unavoidable as it is certain.
The catastrophic events forecast with such clarity and certainty in the pages that follow are derived almost entirely from data that is in publicly available government files ranging from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the CIA and the INS. Anyone with the very extensive time required, the inclination and good computer database skills can establish for themselves the veracity of everything presented in this book. The ideas and data presented are simple to understand. No degree in economics is needed here. The underlying concepts that lead methodically and relentlessly to the shocking results are so compelling that they are, to all intents and purposes, unchallengeable. If this seems an
outrageous claim, you won’t think so by the end of this brief and to the point book.
You will be shown that the fundamental trend of the economy has almost nothing whatever to do with what you hear about all the time, such as interest rates, inflation, budget deficits, the dollar or who is in the White House or who controls Congress. Perhaps you have noticed the latter. A much, much more powerful, unstoppable force is the real trendsetter, and it is really so simple to understand. Every major economic event since 1920 will be easily and convincingly accounted for. It will seem so obvious once you’ve understood it, that what is forecast for the coming years will appear to be all but cast in stone . . . and in fact it is.
Ideas, opinions and projections found on this website and in The Great Bust Ahead
are strictly those of author Dan Arnold. To allow for the circumstances of
individuals, which can vary greatly, they should not be acted upon without
consulting an advisor qualified to advise in financial matters.